How Much Residential Is Enough?
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In the summer of 2002, in response to a request from the Gunbarrel Community Association,
the City Planning Department commissioned a study to determine the demand for retail and
residential development in Gunbarrel. The resulting Gunbarrel Town Center Market Analysis,
delivered in September 2002, was a joint effort by Leland Consulting and Citiventure
Associates. It identified existing retail and residential demand in the Gunbarrel area.
The trade area for the Gunbarrel Town Center was defined in this document. Its boundaries
are Oxford Road, North of Niwot, on the north; Arapahoe Road, in South Central Boulder on
the south; 95th Street on the east; and Foothills Highway, US 36, on the west. This
area, roughly seven miles square, is centered on the proposed town center site. It is not
to be confused with the focus area of the Gunbarrel Community Center Plan. The retail
demand described in this study can be expected to be implemented within the focus area of
the Gunbarrel Community Center Plan, since there is no other place in Gunbarrel for retail
development to occur. The residential demand, on the other hand, can be expected to be
implemented in the far larger trade area.
This study found that there is an existing "pent up" demand for 5000 additional housing
units in the trade area. That means that this demand exists today without any assumption
of future growth in demand factors such as increased employment or population. This demand
is not even for all housing unit types. It is strongest for the
middle ranges of for-sale units ($175,000 to $250,000 and $350,000 to $500,000 ranges) and
in the lowest and highest ranges of rental units (<$700 per month and >$1200 per month).
The study also found that there will be a future demand for between 300 and 1900 more
housing units in the trade area, in addition to those described above, as market demand
expands with future growth scenarios. The Gunbarrel area is currently rich in undeveloped
land that is zoned industrial. If these areas develop in industrial uses, the demand for
residential development will move elsewhere further aggravating the current jobs /
population imbalance in Gunbarrel. If these currently vacant industrial properties can be
developed in residential uses, that will tend to both satisfy the current pent up demand
for housing and limit the future growth of that demand. The great majority of these vacant
industrial properties are outside the boundaries of the Gunbarrel Community Center Plan
indicating that there are many places to site new housing other than within the boundaries
of the community center.
The study found that there is a "pent up" demand for an additional 100,000 square feet of
retail space, most significantly in the areas of grocery/pharmacy, restaurant, and
automotive categories. This existing unmet demand will expand with future growth scenarios
to between 140,000 and 190,000 square feet as the undeveloped lands in Gunbarrel are filled
in. This demand will increase even further if the town center includes attractions such as
entertainment or civic uses (libraries, galleries, community centers, and state government
offices). All this demand must be met within the boundaries of the Gunbarrel Community
Center Plan. It is imperative that the development of the Gunbarrel Community Center not
move in a direction that will prevent the eventual satisfaction of this demand.
The market analysis failed to answer a few key questions. First, how many residential units
must be built within the Gunbarrel Community Center boundaries to make the retail growth
there successful? To what extent will new and existing housing units outside the community
center boundaries satisfy that demand? Furthermore, how many of those residential units
within the community center must be located in its retail core, the place where current
plans call for three stories of residential over one floor of retail?
Fortunately, the key question has been answered by Marilee Utter, the same consultant who
performed the market analysis study. At the City Council meeting on February 3rd, she stated
that between 500 and 1000 residences were required within the proximate area of the Community
Center to provide the critical mass of shoppers to make the retail core successful.
At present, there are 332 apartments in Meadow Creek and 160 condos in Stonegate, just south
of the Community Center. City estimates suggest that 300 additional residences could be built
north of Lookout Road and an additional 60 could be built along Gunpark Drive, all within the
Plan's 111 acre focus area. If the retail core is developed with 35 residential units per acre,
a real possibility with four story buildings, it will contain another 800 residential units.
All of these residences meet the "proximate" criterion, making the total available to support
the community center retail 1650 units, far more than the high number suggested by Marilee Utter.
So, we are on a path to put 1650 residential units in the proximate area of the retail core
when the consultant thinks 1000 are sufficient. As each new proposal is brought forward to build
residential units in the focus area of the Gunbarrel Community Center, we shall have to be
vigilant and forceful in bringing forward this logic. Unfortunately, while we made this point
to the City Council on February 3rd, they chose to ignore it and approve four stories in the
retail core.
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page updated 02/14/04
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